Will Congress emerge victorious in Karnataka elections 2023? Survey report says hung assembly

Will Congress be able to return to power in Karnataka this time? Will the ‘Modi wave’ help BJP retain its ground? Or will Kumaraswamy again become the ‘compromise CM’?

These are the questions that are lingering in the people’s mind as the State prepares for the Assembly polls later this year. A pre-poll survey has tried to pip into the voters’ mind and found the following trends.

A shock to Congress

For those who have already declared that it will be a cakewalk for the Congress, here comes a shocking news. According to a survey conducted by ‘Popular Polls’, Karnataka is heading for a hung Assembly. More interestingly, Congress and BJP will get more or less the same number of seats, the survey finds.

Break-up of seats

The survey has found that Congress will win around 20-22 seats in the Hyderabad-Karnataka region from 40 seats. The BJP is predicted to win around 12-15 seats with JD(S) bagging 5-7 seats.

Out of 44 seats in the Mumbai-Karnataka region, the BJP is projected to win 22-24 seats with Congress winning 16-18 seats. Whereas JD(S) is predicted to win 4-6 seats.

In central Karnataka, BJP will emerge victorious in 17-19 seats out of 27 seats. While Congress is predicted to win 7-9 seats, JD(S) is projected to bag 8-9 seats.

The lotus will bloom in 12-14 seats in the coastal belt with Congress predicted to win 5-7 seats. However, JD(S) is predicted to have zero seats in this part of the State. There are 19 seats in the Karavali region.

In the 66-seat Mysuru region, Congress is predicted to win 21-23 seats, BJP to win 11-13 seats and JD(S) to win 25-30 seats.

The survey claims that the Congress will emerge victorious in 14-16 seats in 28 assembly seats in Bengaluru. BJP is likely to win in 12-14 seats while JD(S) is predicted to win 1-2 seats.

Overall prediction

Overall, Congress will win 82-87 seats in the 224-member Karnataka Assembly. The ruling BJP will get 82-87 seats while JD(S) will bag 42-45 seats. It clearly means JD(S) will be the kingmakers once again, as per the survey.

The survey was conducted between November 10, 2022, to January 30, 2023, where 1.12 lakh people shared their views on the upcoming poll. 62 percent of the respondents were men and 38 percent were women.

60 percent of 1.12 lakh respondents were from the age group of 18-40. While 56 percent respondents were from rural, 44 per cent people were from the urban constituencies.

2018 polls

In the elections held in 2018, the BJP had emerged victorious in 104 seats while Congress won 80 with JD(S) ending at third place with 37 seats.