Robbed of Main Poll Plank in Punjab, Congress, AAP, Akalis Forced to Go Back to the Drawing Board

The enactment of these laws last year triggered a wave of angry protests by farmers in Punjab, Haryana and Western Uttar Pradesh who were adamant that they would not relent till their demand for a complete rollback was accepted. This issue was all set to dominate next year’s Assembly polls in Punjab. Predictably, the opposition parties, ranging from the Congress to the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), were preparing to leverage the anger among the farmers to corner the Modi government in the elections.

Caught off-guard by the Prime Minister’s announcement and robbed of their main political plank, the opposition parties will now have to go back to the drawing board to rethink their campaign strategies. The challenge before them is to convince the electorate that the Modi government’s decision to scrap the farm laws was driven by political intentions with the sole purpose of winning elections and that there is no guarantee that the Centre will not push them through again after the polls.

Though it is acknowledged that the move to scrap the contentious laws was driven by the protests in Uttar Pradesh, it is obvious the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has not given up on Punjab where it does not have a large voter base and has been depending on the Shiromani Akali Dal to form a coalition government. Further, any strong action against the Sikh community would have wide security ramifications.

It was no coincidence that Modi chose to make the announcement on the farm laws on the holy occasion of Guru Nanak Jayanti, which holds special significance for the Sikh community whose members have been at the forefront of the ongoing protests in Punjab. It also comes days after the government reopened the Kartarpur corridor to enable pilgrims to visit the revered Gurdwara Darbar Sahib in Pakistan.

This is not the first time that the Prime Minister has reached out to the Sikh community. He made it a point to offer prayers at gurdwaras both on the occasion of the 550th birth anniversary celebrations of Guru Nanak Dev and the 400th birth anniversary of Guru Tegh Bahadur. More recently, the Modi government provided safe passage to a number of Sikhs families stranded in Afghanistan and also brought back three Swaroops of Guru Granth Sahib from Kabul.

Though Modi has made consistent efforts to endear himself to the Sikhs, they have historically been wary of the BJP, particularly its ideological mentor, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, which denies the community its distinct religious identity and instead sees its members as part of the larger Hindu family.

On the political front, the announcement on the farm laws will pave the way for former Punjab chief minister Amarinder Singh to enter into an alliance with the BJP in the coming polls. Singh has floated his own party after he left the Congress following the unseemly manner in which he was forced to step down as the Punjab chief minister. It would have been difficult for Singh to explain himself to the Sikh peasantry if the Centre had not made any attempt to meet its demands. But the situation has changed now that the laws have been scrapped.

In a state where it is imperative to project a Sikh face for the chief minister’s post, the BJP will only be too happy to replace Akali leader Sukhbir Badal with Amarinder Singh for the top job. The BJP’s primary aim is to deny the Congress a shot at power and ensure that their party and Amarinder Singh’s new outfit win a reasonable number of seats in the elections. In case of a hung Assembly, the BJP can always persuade the Akalis, their old friends, to support or join the government. Alternatively, state can be placed under President’s rule, and the Assembly under suspended animation while a majority is cobbled.

However, it is not clear if the former chief minister has sufficient ground support to create any major electoral upsets. It is well known that the public in Punjab had become disenchanted with Amarinder Singh as it was widely believed that he failed to fulfil his election promises. On the other hand, he has an aura about him and a powerful personality. But can he regain the trust of the powerful Sikh peasantry by taking credit for advising the Centre on repealing the farm laws? He is obviously banking on this factor but it is early days yet to predict how the situation will unfold in the coming months.

The electoral scene in Punjab has been further complicated as the state is set to witness a four-corner contest. If Modi has emerged as the hero today, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi is not lagging behind because he had publicly declared some months ago that the Centre would be forced to repeal the farm laws. The Congress has consistently supported the farmers with Rahul Gandhi even driving a tractor to Parliament to highlight their demands.

As is the case with all political players in the state, the Congress will also join the others in claiming credit for the farmers’ victory. However, Rahul Gandhi’s efforts could be marred by the ongoing public spat between Punjab Congress chief Navjot Singh Sidhu and chief minister Charanjit Singh Channi. In fact, the Congress could well emerge as the chief loser if the two leaders do not call a truce. In the process, the party’s vote base could well shift to Amarinder Singh’s new party.

And then, there is the Shiromani Akali Dal and the Aam Aadmi Party. The latter did fairly well in the last Assembly election by emerging as the main opposition party. It enjoys the support of the lower middle classes, which view its leader Arvind Kejriwal as an honest politician who delivers on his promises. But the party is handicapped by the fact that it does not have a chief ministerial face.

The Akalis will attempt to regain the trust of the Sikh peasantry, its main social base, by underlining how they have always fought for the cause of farmers and will continue to stand by them. However, the Akalis have yet to recover lost ground after their humiliating defeat in the last Assembly election. The fact that Harsimrat Kaur Badal was present at the Cabinet meeting which cleared the three farm bills still rankles with the peasantry. The Akalis are yet to convince the farmers of their innocence in this matter.

The author is a senior journalist. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the stand of this publication.