No-confidence debate in Parliament but does rest of INDIA trust Congress?

Do they trust their biggest constituent, the Congress? Also, what does the Congress really want?

The lack of trust was evident as Congress Deputy Leader in the Lok Sabha, Gaurav Gogoi, rushed to file the notice for the no-confidence motion to get the prime minister to speak on the Manipur issue in Parliament. The rest of INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance), raised its doubts – what was the rush that they couldn’t be kept in the loop. It was a unique opportunity to show the Opposition bloc’s cohesion, they contended.

The other parties in the coalition saw it as Congress’s optics to grab headlines. They asked why weren’t the 49 other signatories proposing the no-confidence motion taken along?

Congress chief Mallikarjun Kharge apologised to the INDIA leaders and assured them that such incidents wouldn’t be repeated, a source told India Today TV.

Those questioning the Congress’s intentions were leaders from the Samajwadi Party, the Trinamool Congress, the Shiv Sena (UBT), the Left, and the DMK.

WHAT DOES CONGRESS WANT?

The Congress will be the biggest loser when it comes to seat sharing for the 2024 general election. It will also have to decide its prime objective — whether it wants its own prime ministerial candidate, most likely Rahul Gandhi, or to defeat the PM Modi-led government. Both will have different strategies and paths.

If its prime objective is to defeat the NDA in the 2024 general election, it will strategically sacrifice seats for regional players so that INDIA emerges with a bigger mandate. But that might result in a Catch-22 for the main opposition party.

By sharing seats with other INDIA constituents, it will have reduced its chances of winning more Lok Sabha seats, thereby, diminishing its chances of staking claim to the prime minister’s post in case the Opposition bloc does end up getting a majority in the Lok Sabha.

But it is this seat-sharing that is likely to be the bone of contention.

SEAT-SHARING AND OVERALL STRENGTH

The Opposition INDIA has planned to meet in Mumbai in the last week of August to hold talks on sharing of seats for the 2024 election.

This will be the real test of unity for the 26 parties, as most would want to contest seats that they not only won (in 2019) but also those in which they came second. In many cases, these will be seats of the INDIA constituents.

The opposition alliance aims to corner the BJP in key states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, and Maharashtra, but the seat-sharing consensus will be a tough nut to crack.

In Uttar Pradesh, the Samajwadi Party (SP) had contested the 2019 Lok Sabha elections in alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and fielded candidates in 37 seats, winning five. The Congress contested 67 seats, winning only one. Sonia Gandhi emerged victorious from Rae Bareli. The Rashtriya Lok Dal contested three seats but didn’t win any.

The SP, RLD and the Left parties are all INDIA members. Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party has made it clear that it will lead the alliance in Uttar Pradesh, while the Congress too wants an equal footing. The division of seats in the crucial state will be a test for the opposition bloc.

In Bihar, Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal United (JDU) had allied with the BJP in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. JDU won 16 of the 17 seats it contested. The Congress won one of the nine seats it contested, while the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) contested 19 seats and didn’t win any. Both the JD(U) and RJD are part of INDIA and the Congress will have to play a third fiddle in Bihar.

In Maharashtra, the previous election saw Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) contesting together. The Shiv Sena had won 18 of the 23 seats it contested in 2019. That was before its split. The Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) is part of INDIA and will have to be factored in for the 2024 polls.

West Bengal is even trickier. Left parties have declared that an alliance with the Trinamool Congress (TMC) in West Bengal is not feasible. The TMC, which secured a majority in the state Assembly elections, is not keen on giving seats to the Congress, although it has toned down its opposition after Congress’s good show in Karnataka.

In the previous Lok Sabha elections, the TMC won 22 of the 42 seats, while Congress won two. Will the Mamata Banrejee-led party, which was formed after she broke off from the Congress, allow an opportunity for the parent party to grow in her state?

The Delhi tussle was evident when it came to the issue of Congress backing the Aam Aadmi party over the services bill. AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal held the bloc to ransom, saying he wouldn’t join the Bengaluru meet in July unless the Congress backed it on the Delhi services bill. The Congress had to give in.

The Congress considers itself a serious contender for the Lok Sabha seats in Delhi. Though the AAP swept the Assembly polls, the Congress had a vote share of 22.6% and the AAP 18.2% in the 2019 election. There is a huge trust deficit between the two when it comes to Delhi.

The fight also gets mirrored in Punjab. Before the formation of INDIA, the AAP had suggested that if Congress refrained from contesting in Delhi and Punjab, it wouldn’t field candidates in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. Both MP and Rajasthan will go to the polls this year. The Congress is in office in Rajasthan and is looking to unseat the BJP’s Shivraj Singh Chouhan government in MP.

CONGRESS THE MAIN BUGBEAR?

The Congress will have to smoke the peace pipe with the AAP in Delhi and Punjab and the TMC in Bengal, if the 26-party coalition has to survive. Then there is the SP in Uttar Pradesh and the JD(U) in Bihar which see the Congress with suspicion.

That suspicion was evident from the very beginning of the formation of the INDIA bloc.

Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar strongly objected to INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) as the name of the Opposition alliance. The sources claimed that the Congress did not have any discussion on the name of the Opposition alliance and Bihar Chief Minister and JD(U) leader Nitish Kumar was shocked when the name was revealed.

It is said that Nitish Kumar, the prime mover in the Opposition-unity bid, has been sidelined by the Congress.

“Nitish Kumar was given the role of bringing all opposition leaders on the same page and forging unity, but now he is not even seen in the third or fourth row,” Lok Janashakti Party (Ram Vilas) leader Chirag Paswan said.

The suspicion of the Congress is legitimate.

The Congress, the largest party in the opposition bloc, has 49 seats in the Lok Sabha. The 2019 election show of the party was a bit better than its 2014 result when it won just 44 seats.

But it is also the Opposition party with the biggest footprint. After winning the Karnataka Assembly polls this year, it is directly ruling four states – Karnataka, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Himachal Pradesh. The Congress is also part of the ruling coalition in Bihar, Tamil Nadu and Jharkhand.

Also, the Congress has governed the country for the longest period of time. Obviously, it wouldn’t like to sacrifice seats and diminish its strength.

But how the Congress helps bridge the trust deficit and how the seat-sharing talks in August pan out will reveal where the opposition bloc is headed. The real test of confidence is outside Parliament, and it is to be seen if the Opposition passes it