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Ontario: With just two days to go until the Ontario election, a new poll finds that PC Leader Doug Ford is on pace to win a majority government.
The Mainstreet Research poll, which randomly surveyed 3,320 Ontario voters on June 3 and June 4, found that among decided and leaning voters, 39 per cent said they would vote for the PCs, while 34.3 per cent said they support Andrea Horwath’s NDP Party.
About 20.2 per cent said they support the Wynne Liberals and approximately five per cent of respondents said they would vote for the Green Party.
The poll comes less than one day after news broke that Renata Ford, the widow of Doug Ford’s brother, former Toronto mayor Rob Ford, launched a lawsuit against the Ontario PC leader. The suit alleges that Doug Ford and his brother Randy Ford mismanaged family assets and Rob Ford’s estate, a claim the PC leader denies.
None of the allegations have been proven in court.
Quito Maggi, president and CEO of Mainstreet Research, said the lawsuit does has the potential to hurt Doug Ford in the polls.
“Because of the efficiency of the PC vote, the NDP need to gain eight points or so and get a three point lead over the PCs to win the election. If this lawsuit is going to hurt Doug Ford, it has to do a lot of damage and now,” Maggi said in his analysis accompanying the poll.
“I suspect that time might be running out and this might be a bridge too far for the NDP to cross.”
He noted that after daily tracking of the campaign, Mainstreet Research has not yet seen an eight-point swing over a two-day period during the campaign.
“I would be genuinely surprised if Horwath can make up this much ground in this such short a time. I expect Ontario to elect a PC majority government on Thursday,” Maggi added.
The poll suggests that the PCs are leading in four out of six regions in the province, including the 905.
Mainstreet said it also appears the NDP have a narrow lead over the PCs in Toronto proper and northern Ontario.
The poll is considered accurate plus or minus 1.7 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
This is the last poll Mainstreet will publicly release ahead of the election on June 7.
