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Ontario:- Justin Trudeau’s Liberals are more than seven per cent ahead of the Conservatives nationally and nearly 13 per cent ahead in Ontario, according to a poll conducted this holiday weekend.
The rolling average of three days of polling from Oct. 9 to 11 by Nanos Research found 35.7 per cent of respondents said they intend to vote Liberal, compared to 28.9 per cent for the Conservatives and 24.3 per cent for the NDP.
The Bloc Quebecois is at 5.7 per cent and the Green Party is at 4.8 per cent.
“The vote split (between Liberal and NDP) that the Conservatives need is not happening and what we’re seeing is right now the Liberals have the upper hand with seven days left before the election,” Nanos Research president Nik Nanos said.
The Liberals lead the Conservatives 45.2 per cent to 32.7 per cent in Ontario, with the NDP at 18.2 per cent and the Greens at 3.3 per cent.
Elsewhere, the Conservatives lead in Manitoba, Alberta and Saskatchewan, the Liberals hold the lead in the Maritime provinces, and there are is relatively tight three-way contest in British Columbia. In Quebec, the NDP holds a five per cent lead over the Liberals, with the Bloc in third.
Nanos said voters still have a favourable of NDP leader Tom Mulcair, but “they don’t see him as a prime minister right now.”
The survey also suggests the Liberals hold the widest possible pool of voters who would consider voting for them.
The poll found 52.7 per cent of respondents said they would consider voting Liberal, 42.3 per cent said they would consider voting NDP, and 38.1 per cent would consider voting Conservative.
The poll found 9 per cent of respondents are still undecided.
Nanos said all three major parties will bombard the airwaves and the internet with ads, attempting to sway undecided voters in the final days of the campaign.
“Many Canadians are last minute shoppers, it’s kind of like Christmas,” Nanos said. “They’re going to wait until probably next weekend to make their decision, and it’s going to be a fight to the finish, even though the Liberals have the upper hand, their support is still volatile.”
Nanos says it uses live telephone interviewers to conduct interviews with 400 eligible voters each day, making a three-day sample of 1,200 respondents. The oldest 400 responses are dropped from the sample each day and replaced with new responses.
Nanos said it reached cell phone-only households as well as land line users.
The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.8 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
