G20 Presidency: How India Is Fast Emerging as The Voice of Developing Nations

It brings 20 of the world’s largest economies that account for 85 per cent of the global GDP and the mightiest of military powers under one umbrella. It is the first time since Independence that India would be presiding over such an influential grouping.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has affirmed that “India would give voice to other developing countries during its presidency”. New Delhi intends to strongly focus on G20’s principal role to assist vulnerable countries, support inclusive development, strengthen economic security and global supply chains, attempt solutions for challenges like climate change, pandemics, economic fragility, and poverty, and come up with initiatives to fund infrastructure requirements of the world.

Ambitious? Yes! Overreach? No! Prospects? Difficult to predict as it would depend on a host of geopolitical and geo-economic factors.

PM Modi did some straight talking at Bali: “Climate change, the Covid pandemic, the developments in Ukraine, and the global problems associated with it – together have caused havoc in the world. Global supply chains are in ruins”.

International cooperation, which is essential to address pressing issues faced by mankind, has given way to acrimony and contestation. International institutions particularly the UN have never been more ineffective. It would be no exaggeration to say that a Cold War-like situation persists at present.

So sharp is the division that several ministerial meetings preparatory to the summit were unable to even agree on a joint statement and had to contend with a Chair’s summary. The Ukraine conflict, the US-China hostility, Chinese coercive diplomacy, looming economic recession, inflation, protectionist walls, onshoring efforts, and Right-wing governments are all adding to the hardening of positions.

A taste of things to come was provided at Bali when Xi Jinping, the newly anointed Chinese President for life, reprimanded and threatened Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada, in full public view. Earlier he condescendingly told President Joe Biden: “A statesman should think about and know where to lead his country. He should also think about and know how to get along with other countries and the wider world.” Wish Biden had told him to practice what he preaches.

Under such circumstances, it is no mean achievement that the Indonesian presidency, with the active support of India and other well-meaning member states, was successful in hammering out the “G20 Bali Leaders’ Declaration”.

It tellingly incorporates Prime Minister Modi’s assertion at Tashkent that “Today’s era must not be of war”. Moreover, the text on the Ukraine conflict (paragraphs 3 and 4), which was a key bone of contention, could become a universal case study in the art of harmonising differences, finding common ground and diplomatic drafting.

It “deplores in the strongest terms the aggression by the Russian Federation against Ukraine” while taking note of, but not outlining, national positions of member states some of which are at variance with the Western outlook. It recognises that G20 is not the forum to resolve security issues yet acknowledges that “security issues can have significant consequences for the global economy”. So skillful is the drafting that every member state can read and interpret it, as per its preference.

As such the task is cut out for India. Yet two things are certain. India has never been better prepared or equipped for the presidency. Second, whatever the outcome it would not be for want of trying on India’s part. India has assured that her approach would be “inclusive, ambitious, decisive, and action-oriented” anchored in her belief in Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam or “One Earth, One Family, One Future”. India’s agenda would emphasise women-led development and technological innovation. PM Modi has promised the invitees a sumptuous treat of India’s rich cultural heritage, amazing diversity, and traditions.

It is natural to ask what makes India’s presidency unique. After all, she is not the first developing country to host the summit. Already prominent developing countries such as Indonesia, Turkey, and Argentina have done so while Brazil and South Africa would be following suit. The answer is India’s size, developmental experience, track record, and core strengths. It would be in order to briefly elaborate.

The biggest democracy, and soon to be the largest country in terms of population, India is already the 5th largest economy, but with the lowest per capita income among all the world’s G20 nations. As such her development needs are sizeable. Today she is the fastest-growing major economy and the story of her accelerated development which should last at least the next two decades, has just begun. Her journey thus far has defied formidable odds and challenges – both internal (debilitating poverty) and external (armed conflicts with Pakistan and China). Yet she prevailed, pulling hundreds of millions out of poverty, extending the social safety net to 800 million citizens, becoming the 3rd largest startup nation, the world’s pharmacy and even granary, an IT powerhouse, and an NWS (nuclear weapons state).

India has ushered in a digital transformation at an enviable pace and scale. The world is facing the challenge of the digital divide. The digital drive on the other hand has united and empowered India, as it has become an integral part of the life of the common man. The change is nothing short of a revolution. India already has over 930 million mobile Internet users. One billion Indians are expected to own smartphones by 2026. Even more heartening is the speed at which digital payments are becoming a norm. In financial year 2021, over 35 billion digital transactions worth $3 trillion were made across India, which are expected to more than triple to $10 trillion by 2026 (Economic Times and Statista).

Saurabh Mukherjea, CEO of Marcellus, narrates an anecdote about a tea vendor in Mumbai who dispenses 2,500 cups of tea daily @ Rs 25 and accepts only digital payments. He would rather give away a cup of tea gratis than ‘waste’ time handling cash. We all recall how during the cash crunch following demonetisation in 2016 even street hawkers effortlessly switched to UPI payments. Today the benefits of digital banking are available to the poorest segment of the Indian population.

Let us look at climate action. Once seen as a naysayer, India today is leading by example without much help from the rich nations. Half of India’s electricity consumption by 2030 would be from renewable sources. India would be carbon neutral by 2070. She is the 3rd largest consumer of energy in the world except that her per capita consumption is 1/11th of the US and 1/6 of China’s. India’s energy needs are bound to increase sharply, but she is committed to green growth, unlike the world’s two biggest polluters. If India were to act otherwise it could have catastrophic consequences. At Bali, PM Modi was spot on in stating: “India’s energy security is also important for global growth.”

And that is the difference between India and her peers in that she is walking the talk, and stands ready to share her developmental experience with the comity of nations. The next summit in New Delhi is slated for the 9th and 10th of September 2023, and meticulous preparations are underway. This could be India’s coming out party but for the testy international environment and ongoing border standoff with China.