Can expect Covid curve to flatten in 3 months: Top ICMR scientist

Dr Samiran Panda, head of the Epidemiology and Communicable Diseases, ICMR, said the coronavirus graph case could flatten only if people follow Covid norms.

“The Covid curve could flatten in the next three months, provided these four things happen. Those states that fall behind in vaccination try to ramp it up, people avoid mass gatherings, people avoid non-essential travel and maintain mask usage with vaccination,” said Dr Samiran Panda.

India reports over 50,000 Covid cases in a day

What is the flattening of the curve?

The “curve” researchers are talking about refers to the projected number of people who will contract Covid-19 over a period of time, a Live Science report said.

The faster the infection curve rises, the quicker the local health care system gets overloaded beyond its capacity to treat people.

“A flatter curve, on the other hand, assumes the same number of people ultimately get infected, but over a longer period of time. A slower infection rate means a less stressed health care system, fewer hospital visits on any given day and fewer sick people being turned away, the report said.

According to a report by the World Health Organisation (WHO), a very high curve is created by a steep increase in the number of cases per day, followed by a quick decreas in the number of cases.

“A flatter curve is created by a more gradual increase in the number of cases per day and a more gradual decrease. Over a long period of time, the number of people infected might be around the same, but the difference is the number of cases that occur each day,” the report said.

Vaccines against Omicron

Dr Samiran Panda also spoke about some experts suggesting that Omicron being a mild infection could help end the pandemic.

He said there will be a rise in the number of infected individuals and that “vaccines will not stop the acquisition of the infection”.

“These are disease-modifying vaccines. There will be a surge of infected individuals. Exposure to the Omicron could itself be a vaccine,” said Dr Samiran Panda.

“As more and more people are getting infected, the infections are getting less severe,” Dr Samiran Panda said.

He said, “Vaccines are able to reduce the severity of infections in the case of Omicron. However, we do not know what effect will it [Omicron] have on the elderly. Hence, we should be cautious.”

Hospitalisations in India

Hospitalisations in India could rise in a few weeks. Health experts believe Covid-19 cases are slowly beginning to surge and a proper analysis could come through only a few weeks later.

“Seventy per cent of the infections are asymptomatic and 30 per cent are mild. Some hospitalisations could be anxious, but we must not forget that India still has Delta variant,” he said.

Amid the Omicron threat, the ICMR is conducting research to find out Covaxin’s efficacy against this mutant variant. The results of this experiment are awaited.

ICMR’s 4 sero-surveys

The ICMR has already done four serosurveys to assess the spread of coronavirus infection in India.

The fourth round of the ICMR’s national serosurvey found that seropositivity or the presence of antibodies was highest in Madhya Pradesh at 75.9 per cent and lowest in Kerala at 44.4 per cent.

As many as 67.6 per cent of the population has developed antibodies against Covid-19, the report said.

A fifth serosurvey may be able to shed light on how far we may still be from herd immunity.

India reports daily surge of 50,000 Covid-19 cases

India’s daily Covid-19 cases crossed the 50,000-in-a-day mark on Tuesday with several states like Maharashtra, Delhi, West Bengal, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu reporting a surge in their fresh infections.

As per the data available at the time of filing this report, cases reported in Maharashtra, Delhi, West Bengal, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Odisha, Himachal Pradesh, Kerala, Goa, Punjab and Telangana, crossed the 50,000-mark.

The final tally of India’s Covid-19 cases will, however, be released by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoFHW) on Wednesday morning.