Assam COVID cases up by 158% after state’s sharpest daily spike; recovery rate at 97%

According to the Assam government health bulletin, the daily positivity rate (percentage of people testing positive) was only 7.87 per cent on Thursday, a day before the Bihu festivity. It rose to 10.75 per cent on Monday night. The state had earlier registered a positivity of 0.77 per cent on January 1.

Eleven deaths were logged during this period, the sharpest surge in daily deaths in six months. However, Dr Sanjay Lakhar, a consultant with AIIMS Guwahati said there is no reason to panic over numbers. “We have witnessed a sudden spike in the number of hospitalisations. Most of them had mild symptoms, they have been sent home with necessary medication. We are monitoring the condition of a few patients in the ICU ward but those are not many and not serious. They are here with some underlying health conditions and we don’t want to take any chances,” he said, refusing to comment on how many of these hospitalised patients had received the vaccination. “We don’t have access to those numbers,” he told News9.

Cases have gone up by 158 per cent in a day, but recovery rate high

The active COVID cases in the state were 918 on January 1 and it rose to 13,785 on Thursday and further claimed to 23,948 on Monday. On Thursday, the death toll rose to 6,189 as four more persons – two from Dibrugarh and one each from Cachar and Sonitpur – succumbed to the disease, the bulletin said. Altogether, 1,347 COVID-positive patients have so far died due to other reasons, it said.

At least 731 people were cured of the disease during the day, taking the total number of recoveries to 6,15,722. The recovery rate among coronavirus patients is at 96.96 per cent.

Positivity rate is not right parameter to gauge Omicron fatality

Dr Vineeta Bal, an immunologist and visiting faculty at ISSER Pune, said it is incorrect for us to talk about a generic wave yet. “The country will not have one smooth wave that peaks and is plateaued at the same time. We are going to see some states and districts suddenly report a rise in cases, while other states remain stagnant. The states that have shown a spike will naturally tend to plateau faster as the rate of infection will be much more there than in districts that have shown a marginal increase in numbers. This is good news for a country like ours. This kind of wave means we can share resources with states when needed,” she told News9.

Is high positivity rate a matter of concern? “We know that Omicron is extremely transmissible so number of cases is going to rise at an unexpected pace. In the light of this information, positivity rate is not the real parameter to gauge seriousness of disease. We need to monitor hospitalisation and ICU bed occupancy to be able to say how fatal this new variant is in this particular demography. If your recovery rate is over 90 per cent, you are doing fine,” she said, adding that vaccination is key and so is strict home isolation guidelines.

Strict measures in place

Guwahati, on Monday, saw a new daily high with 1,491 infections. The rise in cases comes after the statewide celebrations for the harvest festival of Bihu. Out of the total cases detected in the state, 1,491 were reported alone in Guwahati and Kamrup (Metro) districts, 489 in Dibrugarh, 407 in Tinsukia, 372 in Cachar district. Over the last two weeks, Assam has seen over 25,000 fresh cases.

Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma said on Monday that vaccination against COVID-19 is not mandatory in the state but those who are not vaccinated cannot attend meetings, enter offices and restaurants. “People not willing to get vaccinated can stay back at home. In Assam, one will have to show vaccination certificate if necessary,” he said.

Health Minister Keshab Mahanta said the positivity rate stood at 10.75 per cent, as the new infections were detected out of 64,919 sample tests conducted during the day. This is the biggest single-day increase in new infections since May 20, last year.