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Toronto, A new poll from Forum Research is painting a much different picture of the Toronto mayoral race than several recent surveys which gave John Tory a double-digit lead over Doug Ford.
The telephone poll of 1,208 residents, which was conducted on Monday, has found that Tory has the support of 39 per cent of voters compared to 37 per cent for Ford and 22 per cent for Olivia Chow.
When the margin of error is taken into account — 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20 — the two candidates are effectively tied with less than three weeks until election day.
Overall, Tory is down four points and Ford is up four points from Forum’s last poll on Sept. 29.
“John Tory is the guy in the middle. He is the frontrunner and he has been taking hits from both sides. We have seen Olivia Chow really going after him and I think she has started to be effective with those attacks,” Forum Research President Dr. Lorne Bozinoff told CP24 on Tuesday afternoon. “Campaigns matter, though, and really the campaign is just starting now. We have had nine months of sort of pseudo campaigning and now we are starting to pay attention to what the candidates are saying.”
Tory has enjoyed a double-digit lead since overtaking Olivia Chow in early August, according to most polls.
That support hadn’t appeared to wane in recent days with one poll conducted by Mainstreet Technologies on Sunday finding that Tory had a 14-point lead over Ford
The Forum Research poll, however, does suggest that Tory’s approval rating has been dropping for several weeks, going from 66 per cent on Sept. 12 to 53 per cent in this latest poll. Meanwhile, Ford’s approval rating stands at 42 per cent, eight points higher than the approval rating his brother had in the last poll before he dropped out of the race.
The poll also found that Ford is leading in Etobicoke (43 per cent) and Scarborough (45 per cent) while Tory leads in the downtown core (41 per cent) and North York (45 per cent). While Chow is most popular in the downtown core (29 per cent), she fails to lead in any neighbourhood.
An Ipsos-Reid poll released 10 days ago had previously found that Tory enjoyed a 20-point lead over Ford in the so-called heart of ‘Ford Nation’ in Etobicoke and a five-point lead in Scarborough.
Speaking with CP24, Bozinoff said Chow is “having trouble getting traction” in what is increasingly becoming a two-horse race and must “rebrand” herself to have a hope of being elected on Oct. 27.
Bozinoff then added that even with a change in approach, Chow’s campaign may still be sunk by strategic voters that will cast their ballot in favour of the candidate they believe is best suited to defeat Ford.
“If it is close on election day people may say ‘You know what? I don’t want to risk it and vote for Olivia Chow. I need to vote for John Tory to stop Doug Ford,’” he said.
A closer look at the numbers show that Ford polled better among those between the ages of 18 and 34 (49 per cent) while Tory did best among those 65 and up (56 per cent). Ford’s support among the 18-34 group was up 11-points from the last Forum Research poll, the most significant swing among any age group.
Tory and Chow were both asked about the poll in separate interviews with CP24 on Tuesday morning and neither candidate said they were concerned.
“I have taken the same attitude about most of the polls. I just don’t pay much attention to them. I really don’t,” Tory said. “They come out pretty much every day, they are all different and I just try to carry on with my positive message about getting SmartTrack built, getting jobs to Toronto and having a period of greater stability at city hall.”
“There is going to be a tipping point when people say enough of leaving neighbourhoods behind, enough of kids going to bed hungry,” Chow said. “I am the only one that is talking about investing in kids and young people.”
