Poll finds support for ‘Ford Nation’ is waning while Tory remains popular

Toronto, Precisely one year after being elected mayor, John Tory is positioned as the overwhelming favourite to claim victory in the next municipal election while the number of so-called “Ford Nation” supporters in the city appears to be waning.
According to a poll by Mainstreet Research, Tory would easily be re-elected if a vote were held today, with the support of 47 per cent of respondents compared to 20 per cent for Coun. Rob Ford, six per cent for Coun. Mike Layton, two per cent for Coun. Kristyn Wong Tam and one per cent for TTC Chair Josh Colle.
Tory’s overall level of support in the poll is up slightly when compared to the 40 per cent of the vote he garnered in 2014 while Rob Ford ‘support is down from the 33 per cent his brother Doug received.
It should be noted that the candidates for the 2018 election are unknown and will remain so for some time, however Rob Ford has repeatedly said that he is intent on running.
“I would take all these numbers with a grain of salt. There is no mayoral race yet. No campaigns have been launched or promises made. We don’t know if John Tory will have ended up privatizing garbage or not, how labour negotiations will ﬁnish, and what will happen with TTC fares,” Mainstreet Executive Vice President David Valentin said in a statement accompanying the poll. “Events happen. The numbers today aren’t great for Ford but they’re not awful. Considering everything I am surprised he has the support he does.”
While the poll discovered that Rob Ford continues to have a strong base of support, it also found that he may have trouble adding to it in the years ahead.
Of the respondents who did not support the Ward 2 councillor for mayor, a total of 78 per cent said they would not even consider voting for him while 16 per cent said they weren’t sure and only four per cent said they would consider casting a ballot for him.
The overall level of support for John Tory’s performance as mayor in the poll was also high, indicating that Ford would likely face an uphill climb in unseating him.
A total of 64 per cent of respondents said they approved of Tory’s performance so far compared to 23 per cent who disapproved and 12 per cent who offered no opinion. Tory’s support was particularly strong in the downtown core where 76 per cent of respondents said they approved of the job he is doing. Tory enjoyed lower levels of support in the so-called heart of ‘Ford Nation’ in Etobicoke, however 58 per cent of respondents in the west-end borough still approved of the job he has done as mayor.
“Three years is a long time in politics. Today John Tory is a popular mayor, in three years he may not be,” Valentin said. “When we evaluate Ford’s chances for 2018 I often ask myself: is there anything left that could shock us? No, seriously, this is not a rhetorical question. Is there anything left? If we assume there is not, then things can only really get better for him. And on the ﬂipside, there are many, many things that could go wrong for Mayor Tory.”
The poll of 2,607 residents is considered accurate to within 1.92 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.