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The race between two strong candidates in a downtown riding could be closer than previously thought.
A new poll released by Mainstreet Research Wednesday shows that the gap between NDP candidate Olivia Chow and Liberal candidate Adam Vaughan in the new riding of Spadina-Fort York has narrowed to about four percentage points since June.
According to the poll, Olivia Chow now sits at 34 per cent support, down from 36 per cent in June when Mainstreet polled residents about possible matchups in the anticipated election. Vaughan’s support remains unchanged at 30 per cent, the poll found.
Both Chow and Vaughan have represented portions of the new riding at the local and federal levels before.
“This race will be a clash of political titans in Toronto between Chow, a star candidate, former MP and mayoral hopeful vs former city councillor and current MP Adam Vaughan,” Mainstreet Research president Quito Maggi said. “Both are touted to play significant roles in Ottawa.”
Since June, the Conservatives have also dropped two points to 10 per cent support in the riding, while the Green Party has dropped a point to two per cent support.
However it appears that some residents in the riding have changed their minds since June, with 23 per cent saying they haven’t yet decided who to vote for, compared to 17 per cent who said they were undecided in June.
The race in the riding could come down to a matter of who is able to reach most of those undecided voters, Maggi said.
“This riding is a challenge for campaigns with a high concentration of condominiums in the south end with hard to reach populations,” Maggi said. “Those groups of voters could have an impact on outcome on October 19th.”
The poll randomly surveyed 671 residents of the riding on Sept. 14. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.72 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
