Tight races emerging in Toronto-St. Paul’s, Scarborough Southwest: poll

Toronto: With less than a week to go until the municipal election, a new poll suggests that a few very tight races are emerging.

The provincial government’s decision to slash the size of city council has pitted incumbent councillors against one another in multiple wards, including in Toronto-St. Paul’s and Scarborough Southwest.

According to a new poll released by Mainstreet Research Tuesday, councillors Joe Mihevc and Josh Matlow are in a statistical tie in Toronto St. Paul’s with Matlow approximately 1.8 per cent ahead.

The poll also states that it is too close to call in Scarborough Southwest, where Gary Crawford leads Michelle Holland-Berardinetti by 2.8 per cent.

“While Matlow and Crawford have narrow leads in their respective races, all four candidates will need strong finishes and get-out-the vote efforts to win, as it is impossible to rule out victories by either Mihevc or Holland-Berardinetti,” Quito Maggi, president and CEO of Mainstreet Research wrote in his analysis accompanying the poll.

The poll, Maggi said, was conducted between Oct. 10 and Oct. 11, prior to John Tory’s endorsement of Mihevc.

He noted that in Beaches-East York, Tory’s endorsement of Brad Bradford gave the candidate a notable boost, though he still trails former MP Matthew Kellway by a substantial margin.

Kellway, according to the poll, sits at 43.7 per cent support while Bradford has about 32 per cent support.

“The Matlow campaign will carefully look at these results in Beaches-East York as they show the potential impact of a Tory endorsement. We didn’t list Bradford as an option in our last Beaches-East York poll and he could not have been this high if you look at the “another candidate” totals in our previous poll,” Maggi added.

“Tory’s endorsement has certainly given Bradford a big boost, and could give Mihevc the win if there is a similar impact in Toronto-St. Paul’s.”

There were 608 voters polled in the ward of Toronto-St. Paul’s and the polling has a margin of error of 3.96 per cent.

Mainstreet says 615 people were surveyed in Scarborough-Southwest and that sample has a margin of error of 3.93 per cent.

The election will be held on Oct. 22.